A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
